BOSTON – While the impacts of extreme weather have long been recognized as material business risks, Ceres’ new analysis shows how specific natural disasters are already translating into measurable financial repercussions for the food sector. Our analysis also highlights how investing in regenerative agricultural solutions can help companies manage escalating risks, such as those posed by the ongoing El Niño, build global supply chain resilience, and protect up to $500 million annually in profits.
Specifically, the analysis in Ceres’ new report, Cultivating Investment: Resilient Agriculture Can Pay Off for Food Companies, found:
Extreme weather events, fueled by climate change, are causing yield losses across major commodities. Looking ahead, modeling shows that at 3 °C of warming by 2060, the effects of price spikes from acute and chronic climate events could create an increased financial impact for companies purchasing beef, cocoa, coffee, corn, dairy, or soy between twofold and sixfold compared to today.
Traditional risk-hedging strategies have protected companies from commodity shocks, but their effectiveness is eroding. Businesses have relied on well-established risk management tools, including diversifying sourcing, forward contracts for commodities, and passing costs on to customers. These approaches worked well when volatility followed historical patterns of supply and price.
As climate change accelerates, predictability is disappearing. Today, these traditional risk management strategies may delay the financial impact of disruption, but they cannot eliminate the underlying and growing risks posed by increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Regenerative agriculture is a risk management strategy that builds resilience in the agricultural system. Food companies like Tyson Foods and General Mills could safeguard up to $500 million in profits annually through regenerative agriculture.
“As hotter temperatures fuel more intense conditions, the traditional strategies that companies have used to manage price volatility, supply disruptions, and other risks will be less effective,” said Carolyn Ching, director of food and climate research at Ceres. “Companies recognize a need to invest in solutions, such as those with regenerative benefits, that protect farmers and build agricultural resilience.”
Ceres’ report includes case studies that illustrate how companies that heavily rely on certain agricultural commodities are facing compounding climate-driven challenges to their bottom lines. For example, increasing days of excessive heat, changes in rainfall patterns, and disease pressure amplified by climate change caused cocoa production to decline between 2021 and 2024, leading cocoa futures prices to surge in 2024. Ensuing market volatility squeezed profits and margins for Barry Callebaut and Mondelez International.
At the same time, Ceres’ analysis shows that by making meaningful investments in regenerative agriculture programs, companies are better positioned to ensure long-term value. If the food industry adopted a full suite of regenerative practices – those aimed at rebuilding soil health, preserving water resources, conserving biodiversity, curbing emissions, and strengthening livelihoods – the damages from climate-related price spikes could be reduced going forward.
For investors, regenerative agriculture creates significant risk management opportunities. Since it can be difficult to evaluate regenerative agriculture programs without industry-defined metrics, Ceres' report identifies key elements of effective programs that can help investors in their engagements with companies.
Read Ceres’ full report, Cultivating Investment: Resilient Agriculture Can Pay Off for Food Companies
Ceres’ climate initiative for investors in the food sector enters next phase
Drawing on the clear business case underscored in its new report, Ceres is broadening the scope and expanding the offerings of its successful Food Emissions 50 initiative, which was launched in 2021. With a new name that reflects the initiative's evolution, Cultivate will support investors in working with companies to create a more sustainable, resilient, and profitable food and agricultural sector.
“Building on our years of experience and deep expertise, Ceres has positioned Cultivate to help address the pressing climate-related challenges and opportunities facing the food and agriculture sector today and into the future,” said Allan Pearce, director of engagement strategies, food and forests at Ceres. “In launching this next phase, Ceres will provide comprehensive support, resources, and activities to investors in one centralized space.”
Through Cultivate, investors will have access to a wide-range of offerings – from cutting-edge research and corporate benchmarking to individual engagement strategy guidance and in thematic areas focused on pressing topics, such as climate impacts of meat and dairy sourcing and on-farm fertilizer use. A key component of the initiative will be new education and stakeholder convenings on the considerable opportunities for scaling private sector finance in natural climate solutions.
Learn more about Ceres Cultivate here.
Editor’s note: The new analysis comes as investors, companies, policymakers, and advocates convene in New York City for Climate Week NYC 2026. Ceres is hosting a mainstage event focused on climate solutions and investments in a more resilient economy. See our media advisory here. It is open to journalists. RSVP to [email protected].
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About Ceres
Ceres is a nonprofit advocacy organization working to accelerate the transition to a cleaner, more just, and resilient economy. With data-driven research and expert analysis, we inspire investors and companies to act on the world's sustainability challenges and advocate for market and policy solutions. Together, our efforts transform industries, unlock new business opportunities, and foster innovation and job growth – proving that sustainability is the bottom line. For more information, visit ceres.org.
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