A Framework for 2 Degrees Scenario Analysis: A Guide fo...
December 6, 2016
With few exceptions, the world’s leading fossil fuel companies have based their long-term business plans on an assumption that demand for fossil fuels will continue to grow robustly for decades to come.
In the past year, however, experts ranging from the CFO of Shell to analysts at Citi to the head of CNPC, the largest oil producer in China, have raised doubts about this business-as-usual approach to planning. As the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, the prolonged oil price downturn, accelerating implementation of global climate policies, rapid evolution of clean energy technologies and a wide range of other economic, regulatory and societal conditions are raising the possibility that global demand for oil could peak much earlier than expected, with profound implications for the industry and its investors.
In light of these shifting market dynamics, investors have begun calling on oil and gas companies to assess the resilience of their portfolios to climate- and technology driven shifts in demand, and to disclose how climate risks are being addressed as part of the strategic planning process.
To help illuminate this complex set of risks, Ceres and global energy expert Amy Myers Jaffe have developed this new resource entitled, A Framework for 2 Degrees Scenario Analysis: A Guide for Oil and Gas Companies and Investors for Navigating the Energy Transition.
Download the report to learn about the framework, how it enhances the current practice of scenario analysis, and how it can provide decision-useful insights that will help fossil fuel companies mitigate the vulnerabilities they face as energy markets transition to a low carbon future.